Stottler Henke developed a munitions effectiveness model inspired by effects-based operations (EBO). The prototype implemented in Phase I employs an adapted PageRank algorithm to find efficient methods for disabling systems modeled by fault analysis logic trees (FALTs), which are used by the Advanced Joint Effectiveness Model (AJEM), a DoD-standard simulation.
Many of today’s munitions effectiveness measures adopt unrealistic damage assessments, such as coarse granularity, state-less damage, and independent effects. We propose to build an effectiveness model inspired by effects-based operations. We will decompose targets into their constituent elements as well as dependencies among other assets. Weapon damage in this sense is viewed as against a target’s elements with cascading effects to other assets. The resulting effectiveness model will have finer-grained and accurate damage assessments. Weaponeering and simulation tools will be greatly improved for cooperative strike scenarios regarding accuracy and trustworthiness.